Battery mineral demand is expanding with electric vehicles and energy storage, but production, refining, chemistry and recycling remain uneven across regions. The figures below distinguish observed or estimated 2024 conditions from IEA scenarios and EU legal targets.
Key Battery Mineral Statistics
The most broadly useful figures are:
- In 2024, global lithium demand rose nearly 30% across energy and non-energy applications.
- In 2024, global nickel, cobalt and graphite demand each increased 6–8%.
- During 2022–2024, energy applications supplied 85% of global demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite.
- During 2020–2024, battery-metal supply growth was twice the late-2010s rate globally.
- In 2024, global energy-sector battery demand reached 1 TWh, including electric vehicles and storage.
- In 2024, world lithium mine production excluding U.S. output was 240,000 metric tons of lithium content.
- In 2024, world lithium reserves were estimated at 30 million metric tons, while measured and indicated resources were about 115 million metric tons.
- From 2021–2024, lithium prices fell more than 80% from 2023 levels after an eightfold rise during 2021–2022.
- In 2024, global EV battery demand exceeded 950 GWh, 25% above 2023.
- In 2024, LFP batteries represented nearly half of the global EV battery market.
- In 2024, China held about 85% of global battery-cell manufacturing capacity.
- By 2035, China is projected to supply over 60% of refined lithium and cobalt.
- In 2035, remaining graphite and rare-earth supply would cover only 35–40% of N-1 demand after excluding the largest supplier.
- In the IEA STEPS scenario, cobalt and rare-earth demand increases 50–60% by 2040.
- In a modeled fivefold mineral-price shock, average global battery-pack prices rise 20%.
- By 31 December 2030, the EU lithium-battery recycling-efficiency target is 70% by average weight.
- From 18 August 2036, EU recycled-content minimums include 26% cobalt, 12% lithium and 15% nickel for covered industrial batteries over 2 kWh.
Contents
- Demand growth and market scale
- Lithium production, reserves and supply
- Prices, investment and concentration
- EV battery chemistry and manufacturing
- Supply-chain risk and forecasts
- Recycling and recovered-mineral targets
Battery Mineral Demand Growth and Market Scale
The IEA estimated that global lithium demand rose nearly 30% in 2024. Nickel, cobalt and graphite demand each increased 6–8% during the same year, although the latter figures are ranges rather than point estimates. IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Across 2022–2024, energy applications supplied 85% of total demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite globally. The IEA also estimated that battery-metal supply growth during 2020–2024 was twice the rate recorded in the late 2010s. IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Lithium demand in 2024 was about six times its 2015 level. Global energy-sector battery demand reached 1 TWh in 2024, a measure that includes EV batteries and storage applications.
The IEA defines its battery-demand figures using installed batteries in vehicles sold, with demand calculated from volume-weighted average battery size multiplied by vehicle sales; stockpiling is excluded. IEA, Global EV Outlook 2025
Lithium Mineral Statistics: Production, Reserves and Supply
USGS estimated world lithium mine production excluding U.S. output at 240,000 metric tons of lithium content in 2024. U.S. production was withheld and excluded from that total, so the figure should not be read as complete reported mine output. USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: Lithium
| Geography | 2024 mine production | 2024 reserves |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 88,000 metric tons | 57 million metric tons |
| Chile | 49,000 metric tons | 9.3 million metric tons |
| China | 41,000 metric tons | Not supplied |
| Argentina | 18,000 metric tons | 4 million metric tons |
| Zimbabwe | 22,000 metric tons | Not supplied |
The production figures are USGS estimates of lithium content, not tonnage of finished battery chemicals. The supplied USGS data gives reserves for Australia, Chile and Argentina in the comparison above, while it does not provide corresponding values here for China or Zimbabwe. USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: Lithium
USGS estimated world lithium reserves at 30 million metric tons in 2024 and measured and indicated resources at about 115 million metric tons. Reserves and resources are different categories: resources are not necessarily economic reserves, and the USGS reserve definition applies to the reserve estimate. USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: Lithium
The estimated composition of global lithium resources was approximately 58% brines, 36% volcanic tuffs or clays and 6% pegmatites. These are geological deposit types, not shares of current production. USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: Lithium
Battery Mineral Prices, Investment and Concentration
Lithium prices fell more than 80% from 2023 levels after rising eightfold during 2021–2022. The IEA price assessment does not specify one single contract or grade, so this is a market-level comparison rather than a universal quote for every lithium product. IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
| Measure | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Graphite price change | 2024 | Down 10–20% |
| Cobalt price change | 2024 | Down 10–20% |
| Nickel price change | 2024 | Down 10–20% |
| Critical-mineral development spending | 2024 | Up 5% nominally |
| Real critical-mineral development investment | 2024 | Up 2% |
Critical-mineral development spending growth slowed from 14% in 2023 to 5% in 2024, while real investment growth after cost inflation was 2% in 2024. The IEA analysis is based on S&P Global and reports nominal spending where specified. IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
The average top-three refining share for key energy minerals rose from about 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024. About 90% of refined-supply growth came from the top single supplier during 2020–2024, with the IEA attributing leading growth mainly to Indonesia for nickel and China for cobalt, graphite and rare earths. IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Mining concentration also increased: the average top-three mining-country share rose from 73% in 2020 to 77% in 2024 across key energy minerals. These are averages across minerals, not a single market share for lithium or any other one mineral. IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
EV Battery Mineral Trends: Chemistry and Manufacturing
Global EV battery demand exceeded 950 GWh in 2024, 25% above 2023. Electric cars accounted for more than 85% of global EV battery demand, while electric-truck battery demand grew more than 75% and represented nearly 3% of the global total. IEA, Electric vehicle batteries – Global EV Outlook 2025
LFP batteries represented nearly half of the global EV battery market in 2024, but chemistry share is not the same as mineral-demand share. LFP met nearly three-quarters of China’s domestic battery demand, remained below 10% of U.S. EV batteries, and exceeded 10% of the EU EV market after about 90% growth for the second consecutive year. IEA, Electric vehicle batteries – Global EV Outlook 2025
Global battery-cell manufacturing capacity grew almost 30% in 2024 to more than 3 TWh. China held about 85% of global capacity, and Chinese producers owned more than 75% of global capacity; these figures distinguish physical capacity from ownership. IEA, Electric vehicle batteries – Global EV Outlook 2025
U.S. battery manufacturing capacity grew almost 50% in 2024, while EU capacity increased 10%. Both are installed-capacity growth measures, not actual cell output or utilization. IEA, Electric vehicle batteries – Global EV Outlook 2025
Battery Mineral Supply-Chain Risk and 2030–2040 Forecasts
The IEA STEPS scenario projects cobalt and rare-earth demand to increase 50–60% by 2040, while copper demand grows 30%. Copper also has substantial non-battery demand, so the copper forecast is not a battery-only measure. IEA, Overview of outlook for key minerals – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
By 2035, the top three countries are projected to supply 85% of mined nickel, up from 75% in 2024. The top three lithium producers’ share is projected to fall below 70%, from above 75% in 2024, based on the announced project pipeline. IEA, Overview of outlook for key minerals – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
China is projected to supply over 60% of refined lithium and cobalt in 2035 and around 80% of battery-grade graphite. The graphite definition includes spherical and synthetic graphite under the IEA approach, and these are refined-supply forecasts rather than mined-ore forecasts. IEA, Overview of outlook for key minerals – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
The IEA’s 2035 N-1 analysis removes the largest supplier’s production and consumption, so its results are scenario-derived resilience measures rather than observed shortages:
- Remaining graphite and rare-earth supply would cover only 35–40% of N-1 demand.
- Remaining nickel supply would cover less than 55% of N-1 demand; the ratio could be lower if battery-grade nickel sulphate disruption is considered.
- Remaining lithium and cobalt supply would cover about 65% of N-1 demand.
In modeled price-shock scenarios, a fivefold increase in lithium, nickel or graphite prices would raise average global battery-pack prices by 20%. A tenfold price increase would raise battery prices 40–50%.
These are IEA model results, not observed events. IEA, Overview of outlook for key minerals – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Battery-cell levelised production costs in Europe and the United States are currently 40–50% higher than in China in the IEA’s 2025 outlook comparison. This is a cell-production cost comparison, not a retail battery price. IEA, Overview of outlook for key minerals – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Battery Recycling Statistics and Recovered-Mineral Targets
EU battery figures in this section are legal targets and calculation thresholds, not current measured recycling performance. Material recovery is calculated at the recovery point specified by Regulation (EU) 2023/1542. Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries
| EU target | Deadline | Required level |
|---|---|---|
| Lithium-based battery recycling efficiency | 31 December 2025 | 65% by average weight |
| Lithium-based battery recycling efficiency | 31 December 2030 | 70% by average weight |
| Cobalt, copper, lead and nickel material recovery | 31 December 2027 | 90% |
| Lithium material recovery | 31 December 2027 | 50% |
| Cobalt, copper, lead and nickel material recovery | 31 December 2031 | 95% |
| Lithium material recovery | 31 December 2031 | 80% |
The EU’s 2025 recycling-efficiency targets are 75% for lead-acid batteries, 80% for nickel-cadmium batteries and 50% for other waste batteries, each measured by average weight. These targets should not be interpreted as reported national recycling rates. Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries
For covered industrial batteries over 2 kWh, EU recycled-content minimums from 18 August 2031 are 16% cobalt, 85% lead, 6% lithium and 6% nickel. From 18 August 2036, the minimums rise to 26% cobalt, 85% lead, 12% lithium and 15% nickel, with specified exemptions applying. Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries