Copper is a globally traded industrial metal whose outlook is shaped by electricity networks, clean-energy technologies, mine supply, refining concentration and recycling. The figures below distinguish observed estimates from scenario forecasts and keep the relevant geography, period and measure explicit.
Key Copper Statistics
These highlights summarize the most useful copper measurements across demand, supply, recycling and infrastructure:
- In 2021, global cleantech copper demand was 5,380 kt in the IEA Announced Pledges Scenario (APS).
- In 2023, global APS cleantech copper demand was 6,311 kt.
- The IEA projects APS cleantech copper demand at 12,001 kt worldwide in 2030.
- The IEA projects APS total copper demand at 36,379 kt worldwide in 2040.
- The top three mining countries accounted for 47% of global copper mining in 2023.
- The top three refining countries accounted for 59% of global copper refining in 2023.
- ICSG estimates world copper mine production at 23,197 kt in 2025.
- ICSG forecasts world mine production at 25,830 kt in 2027 before adjustment.
- ICSG forecasts world refined copper production growth of 0.4% in 2026.
- ICSG projects a refined copper surplus of about 377,000 tonnes worldwide in 2027.
- APS secondary supply and reuse was 4,445 kt worldwide in 2023.
- The IEA projects APS copper scrap availability at 27 Mt worldwide in 2050.
- Only 25% of global e-waste generated in 2022 was documented as properly collected and recycled.
- The IEA estimates announced projects cover 70% of APS copper requirements by 2035.
- USGS estimated world copper reserves at 980 million tonnes in 2024.
- Annual copper demand for world electricity grids was 5 Mt in 2020.
- The IEA projects annual grid copper demand at nearly 10 Mt in 2040 in the SDS.
Contents
- Copper demand statistics and long-term trends
- Copper mining and refining data by region
- Copper usage, balances and forecasts
- Copper recycling and scrap statistics
- Copper reserves and supply risks
- Copper demand in grids, vehicles and infrastructure
Copper Demand Statistics and Long-Term Trends
The IEA APS separates cleantech demand from total copper demand. That distinction matters because electrification is one demand driver, while construction, equipment and other uses remain in the total.
| Measure | 2021 | 2023 | 2030 forecast | 2040 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleantech demand, world APS (kt) | 5,380 | 6,311 | 12,001 | 16,343 |
| Total demand, world APS (kt) | 24,928 | 25,855 | 31,128 | 36,379 |
Source: Copper – Outlook for key energy transition minerals. The 2021 and 2023 values are scenario estimates; 2030 and 2040 values are APS forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes.
The relationship between the two measures shows why a clean-energy demand figure should not be treated as the entire copper market. In the IEA Net Zero Scenario, refined copper demand rises 50% between 2023 and 2040, and the IEA estimates a USD 330 billion copper market in 2040 using 2023 annual-average price levels for projection-period sizing.
Source: Outlook for key minerals – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024.
Copper Mining and Refining Data by Region
Copper supply is geographically concentrated at both the mining and refining stages. In the APS milestone series, the top three mining countries supplied 46% of global mining in 2021, 47% in 2023, and are projected to reach 48% in 2030 and 54% in 2040; the top three refining countries represented 57% in 2021 and 59% in 2023.
Source: Copper – Outlook for key energy transition minerals. The concentration figures are three-country shares; future values are scenario forecasts.
ICSG’s regional table gives a separate view of mine production. Its 2025 estimates and 2026–2027 forecasts are mine production, not refined output.
| Region | 2025 estimate (kt) | 2026 forecast (kt) | 2027 forecast (kt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | 4,490 | 4,589 | 4,949 |
| Latin America | 8,761 | 9,101 | 9,504 |
| Asia excluding ASEAN and CIS | 2,839 | — | — |
| North America | 2,209 | — | — |
| World | 23,197 | 24,249 | 25,830 |
Source: Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027. The world forecasts are unadjusted table totals, and the regional classification is ICSG’s.
Copper Usage, Market Balances and Near-Term Forecasts
ICSG expects mine-production growth to remain positive but uneven. World mine production growth is forecast at 1.6% in 2026, revised down from 2.3% in the prior October outlook, and 2.3% in 2027.
The refining outlook separates primary copper from scrap-based secondary production:
- World refined copper production growth is forecast at 0.4% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027.
- Primary refined copper production growth is forecast at 2.3% in 2027.
- Secondary refined copper production from scrap is forecast to grow 5.7% in 2027.
Source: Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027. These are forecasts, not realized production results.
On the usage side, ICSG forecasts world apparent refined copper usage growth of 1.6% in 2026, including about 1.9% in China and 1.3% in the rest of the world, followed by 2.0% worldwide growth in 2027. The Chinese apparent-usage calculation excludes changes in unreported stocks, so it can differ from realized demand.
ICSG projects a refined copper surplus of about 96,000 tonnes worldwide in 2026 and 377,000 tonnes in 2027. Market balances are forecasts and may differ from eventual outcomes.
Copper Recycling and Scrap Statistics
Recycling data uses several distinct measures. APS secondary supply and reuse includes more than end-of-life scrap alone, while scrap availability describes material that could become available rather than copper actually recovered.
| Measure | Baseline or 2021 | 2023 | 2030 forecast | 2040/2050 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APS secondary supply and reuse (kt copper) | 4,123 in 2021 | 4,445 | 5,879 | 10,006 in 2040 |
| APS copper scrap availability (Mt) | 16 Mt today | — | 19 Mt | 27 Mt in 2050 |
| Secondary supply share of total demand | 17% today | — | — | Nearly 40% in 2050 |
Sources: Copper – Outlook for key energy transition minerals and Executive summary – Recycling of Critical Minerals. “Today” refers to each report’s baseline period; availability is not recovered output, and the secondary-supply share excludes direct-use scrap.
The IEA also says EV and storage copper scrap availability expands more than 35-fold between 2030 and 2050 in its analysis. This is a forecast of scrap availability growth, not a recycling rate.
E-waste is a broader recovery opportunity rather than a copper-only measure. In 2022, only 25% of global e-waste was documented as properly collected and recycled, while metals contained in global e-waste were valued at about USD 90 billion.
Source: Executive summary – Recycling of Critical Minerals. The e-waste value covers all metals, not copper alone.
Copper Reserves, Resources and Supply Risks
Reserves and resources describe different levels of geological and economic confidence. USGS estimated 980 million tonnes of contained copper reserves worldwide in 2024, while about 697 million tonnes had been produced worldwide through 2024.
USGS also estimated 1.5 billion tonnes of identified unextracted copper resources in 2015 and 3.5 billion tonnes of undiscovered copper resources in 2015. These broader resource estimates are not equivalent to reserves or to an immediately available production pipeline.
Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. The reserve and resource definitions reflect the USGS report’s scope; the historical production figure is cumulative through 2024.
Project delivery is a separate constraint from geological quantities. The IEA estimates announced projects cover only 70% of APS copper requirements by 2035, and its 2024 outlook discussion projects a 30% copper supply deficit in 2035 under its project-pipeline scenario.
Water exposure is another risk indicator: the IEA reports 52% of copper mines are located in high-water-stress areas. This is a location-exposure measure, not water consumption or a probability of mine failure.
Source: Copper – Outlook for key energy transition minerals and Outlook for key minerals – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024. Both project and exposure figures retain their source-specific definitions.
Copper Demand in Grids, Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Electricity grids are a major copper-demand application, and the IEA grid figures include both expansion and replacement. Annual copper demand for world electricity grids was 5 Mt in 2020; the IEA projects 7.5 Mt annually by 2040 in the STEPS and nearly 10 Mt annually by 2040 in the SDS.
Source: Outlook for key minerals – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024. STEPS and SDS are scenario pathways, not guaranteed infrastructure outcomes.
Copper and aluminium are both relevant to grid investment. Using average prices over the preceding 10 years, the IEA estimates copper at about 14% of total grid investment costs and aluminium at about 6%.
Technology choices can change the material mix. In an SDS sensitivity case, a higher aluminium share in underground and subsea cables could reduce 2040 copper demand by 3.6 Mt, while wider HVDC adoption could reduce combined copper and aluminium demand by 4 Mt in 2040, estimated as 15% of combined demand.
Offshore wind also has a disproportionate material profile in the IEA analysis: it represents 20% of wind-capacity additions but accounts for nearly 40% of copper demand from wind in the 2040 outlook context. These are scenario-analysis shares, not current observed adoption rates.
Source: Outlook for key minerals – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024.